Global Diplomacy Amid Russia Invasion of Ukraine

Global Diplomacy, Amid Russia Invasion of Ukraine: Russia’s invasion which started right after the Beijing Olympics has now taken the whole world both in the mix of fear and a political establishment of their particular interests which apparently is not sidelining Russia though sanctions. In the world full of Miss and Disinformation in the internet era, is next to impossible by the viewer to make any decisions or form an opinion for that matter. The question is are we forced to see only one side of the story or we need to also see the Russian side for their operation ?. The answer to all the economic, social and political problems lies only deep inside International Politics, and especially in a world interconnected, situations of nations needs to be understood for the relations.

Corning someone is never a good idea, said Putin in one of his speeches he had made, and to take decisions Russia also needs to talk with other nations as well, all on one table, but which seems to be missing at the point, and for all the international politics that day could never come, but what could happen is a possible permanent ceasefire, only if the two leaders agree.

Why joining NATO of Ukraine can be problematic for Putin ?

If we look at global level, when the Soviet Union broken out, also after the World War, NATO was created to protect the European Countries, since Russia is Independent, a bigger fear for Putin, can arise in the near future, if Ukraine joins NATO, its forces can possibly remain on the borders of Russia with Ukraine, which can create a possible threat in future. At present, if President Zelensky, agrees to be on a neutral side, and not to be a part of NATO, then it can solve the crises. Russia since th big had made it quire clear that it does not want to kill civilians and destroy the relations of the two. Few of the Many conditions were:

1. Not Being a Part of NATO
2. Recognising Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk’s mediation and acceptance
3. NeoNazification

Who are mediating and why ?

Since Russia has invaded Ukraine, 4 countries are trying to meddle and stop the war to normalise the crises, but as said, In politics, a friend is none, all that matter is the motives and the agenda behind. India, Turkey, France and Israel are the countries trying to maintain a balance so far, maintaining a “non dancing stance on either one of the sides” so far but what’s the political interest Behind it, the intentions are pure, and if they can pressurise them to stop the war, nothing is better than that and seems Washington also has a lot of interest in stopping the war, the reasons can be:

1. Emmanuel Macron of France – One of the only leaders who had multiple talks with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin and still doesn’t want to loose hopes for his successes, the major reason is the French election which are to happen in April of 2022, but if the cost of those elections can lead to a world peace. Everyone accepts the agenda whole heartedly, but is there anything more to this, no its not.
2. President Tayipp Erdogan of Turkey– Another peace making efforts goes to this man, the resilient efforts. In May 2021, Turkey is threatening to go ahead with Russian military purchases despite warnings from Washington but why is now, he supporting Ukraine. The answer remains simple , maintain a balanced stance towards both the nations as the diplomatic relations between the two , or rather three are very strong, so wants to maintain a balanced side. Ukraine is using Turkish drones, but also he is going for talks to Putin.
3. Prime Minister Narendra Modi– The world dictionary repeating the words like of Non Alignment is what India seems to be maintain at best, the reason about india being in a position of military ties. India, taking either one of the sides after the evacuation of Indians could be possible, What comes from Delhi, is yet to be seen.
4. Naftali Bennett of Israel– Recently Israeli counterpart, visited and made a trip to Moscow, after which he also had briefed Ukraine. Bennet who also has a strong Russian relations also supports Jewish community, which is the primary reason of his support towards Ukraine, Bnent being a Jewish leader and same as the Ukrainian President Zelensky, may b a reason for this support, his balanced attitude towards to two is helping him to try and mediate the war.

Weapons and Sanctions are the way using which the west is targeting Russia , but the question remains : is the world ready to sideline a top contributor of World’s energy market, the answer to this question is, definitely not.

Russia which counts for major gas supply to the west, banning which will lead to a deeper impact on the world economies. Expensive oil is only beneficial to two countries, Russia and United Arab Estates, the reason being a money minting status of the biggest oil producers in the world. According to the reports, Russia had earned $100 billion from the oil market globally, so will the other economic sanctions matter ?

Russia, which had developed a no limit partnership with China can also not assist Moscow in this situation, the biggest threat can it be for Moscow after being not supporting the invasion in the UNHRC voting held recently and when it comes to oil, the western support is also required by everyone. Clearly, sidelined country can create issues, everyone knows about Venezuela and its oil status once being recognised by the globe but sanctions has made that to not contribute in world energy market.

How is West trying to restore the Crude & Gas Supply from the West ?

According to Russia’s response on the Western Oil sanctions, reaching to $300/Barrel could be a possibility if a supply is disrupted and it could also take actions to cut the Gas supply to the Europe if oil sanctions are being imposed which can lead to a dangerous isolated Russia with a possible Oil War. Only way to stop this is to call for a permanent ceasefire, which may be in talks but the oil and gas would take a longer time to restore.

In order to restore the supply crunch and isolating Putin, Biden’s next game plan can be Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Iran, but as I said, no one remains a friend when it comes to international politics, and the biggest motivator is only money at such level. The reasons as to why these can be tough but yet game changer for the west are:

1. Iran– The Possible game changer in this can be the revival of the Nuclear Deal, and Iran’s capacity to produce 4 million barrels per day is enough to convince Biden to take an action but before that a lot has to be done, one being lifting sanctions, revising nuclear deal and many more. The problem only remains again is Moscow, any deal between Vienna and Iran has to get a green signal from Vladimir Putin.
2. Venezuela- “U.S. sanctions were designed to ensure that Maduro and his cronies don’t profit from illegal gold mining, state-operated oil operations, or other business transactions that would enable the regime’s criminal activity and human rights abuses.” said ShareAmerica in one of their posts, which could be a problem for Joe Biden unless he lifts them from Venezuela. Venezuela’s President- Nicolás Maduro, has also probably a Russian Ally, Russia–Venezuela relations include cooperation between these tow in areas of common concern, such as their common status as oil exporters, and policy toward the United States. Venezuela is Russia’s most important trading and military ally in Latin America, but what happens when sanctions are lifted and it becomes a global oil giant again and will Biden be able to let Maduro shift his sides from Russia ? – Only time can tell
3. Saudi Arabia- If Washington via its visit to UAE can convince Riyhad to supply more oil and release it, it could again be a game changer but again, a problem arises that of the reopening of landmark cases of 9/11 and the muder of Jamal Kashoggi, and reconsidering of Biden’s support on the matters before convincing the major.

Iran and Venezuela were always a Backup plan for Putin for powering the Latin America and this happened especially after the United States had banned the Oil Export and producing status for Venezuela on the basis ” to ensure that Maduro and his cronies don’t profit from illegal gold mining, state-operated oil operations, or other business transactions that would enable the regime’s criminal activity and human rights abuses.” but if Biden breaks a deal, Russia can be isolated and it can be a dealbreaker and probably a peace maker too. Also, If Ukraine and Russia agrees on a balance note, this day could be postponed and world can take steps to move towards normalisation after a permanent Ceasefire. Putins intentions had never been toppling the government and make people suffer because of it, as per the Russian Orders, Russia does not feel in any way to bother its neighbour, and in fact, its brother claimed Russian officials many times in the talks, only demand has ben to stay away from the NATO and remove Neo Nazis from Ukraine

Where is Vladimir Putin’s Family ?

In a War like station, protection is a must even for the leader and its loved ones. Vladimir Putin has in recent days hidden his family members in an “underground city” in Siberia, according to a Russian professor. according to him, the bunker is fully protected from a possible Nuclear Attack, if it happens, altogth this professor continues to pass such unverified claims, but such is the image which arises. Not much have been known, till yet, about him and his family, it is true that, he had two daughters with here Wife Putina, with whom which he got divorced in 2014, post that, anything more is not revolved by the Kremlin. No one claims to verify Putin’s Family Bunker story, but its being widely circulated.

Reference

1. US- Venezuela Sanctions
2. 911 America and UAE
3. NATO

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Can the mediation be possible ? – If it does happen , which seems it may in the meting between, Turkey, Russia and Ukraine, the news can be the best anyone can remember. The blog has been about the supply crises at the max, and hope you have got to know about how are we approaching things in the new world order, but trust me. no one wants destruction and no one wants World War 3.